Author Topic: Poland Political Change Can Mean More Support For UA  (Read 1063 times)

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Online David Rochlin

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The ruling party in Poland just lost the symbolic, but not powerful office of President, to a Rightist party which, if it should achieve real power on legislative elections, might be very inclined to increase military support for Ukraine, even defy the rest of the EU in doing so:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/25/world/europe/poland-president-election-bronislaw-komorowski-andrzej-duda.html?_r=0


Offline P-N

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Re: Poland Political Change Can Mean More Support For UA
« Reply #1 on: 11:46 25-May-2015 »
The last time PiS were in power in Poland it didn't defy the EU over anything major, and there's no reason to think that if they won control of the parliament later in the year, that they would defy the EU over anything major this time either.

As defence and foreign policy are distinctly sovereign affairs and guarded zealously by the Member States, EU Foreign Policy (and the CSDP) are subject to lowest common denominator agreement between them, but in no way holds any sway over domestic decisions.  Poland can (and perhaps is) supply weapons under the current Civic Platform parliament - and has threatened to do so several times.

The Polish/Lithuanian/Ukrainian Brigade already exists, Brigade HQ in Poland, so a defensive alliance already exists, whether PiS tries to enlarge it or not, some form of Lit/Pol?Ukr V4 would not be groundbreaking.

What will matter is the Polish relationship with Germany over issues other than Ukraine, deep at the heart of the EU.  Should Poland join the happy band of the UK, Denmark etc that are already standing firm on no further ceding of powers to Brussels, then internal strife will be the issue rather than external projection.

The biggest threat to Ukraine is the "redefining/reassessment" of the EaP, which in being so "redefined" probably will not only fail to have any ambition within it, but may also appease Russia in the process.  If so, then the EaP will die a slow death, with Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine seeking other platforms to pursue their long-term European goals.

NATO, on the other hand, can be fairly sure that PiS will continue to boost GDP spending on Polish defence, rather than reverse the Civic Platform policy.

The only likely gain Ukraine would have from a PiS Polish parliament, is that it would insure that Kremlin aggression (and thus Ukraine) remain at the top of every European Council agenda - and it is the European Council that agrees the lowest common denominator "Foreign Policy" of the EU as a whole - though EU FP toward Russia and Ukraine has more or less reached its absolute limits (baring major escalation).

A likely bone of contention will be the recently passed law regarding the Bandera Era Ukrainian nationalists - for obvious reasons, Polish nationalists are not about to accept their role cannot be confronted or condemned, thus they would demand amendments to the law which would upset the Ukrainian nationalists who managed to get this ill-conceived law passed in the first place.
« Last Edit: 12:20 25-May-2015 by P-N »
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