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AkMike:
Russia is close to freezing the construction of Nord Stream-2 next year



Russia is close to freezing the construction of Nord Stream-2 next year
Pipelines bypassing Ukraine may not be completed

Russia began to receive disappointing signals about gas supplies to Europe since the Norman Four summit. Everything goes to the point that in 2020, the maintenance of the pipeline infrastructure for gas transportation in the Baltic Sea will be limited for six months, and Nord Stream-2, as well as Turkish Stream, may be unfinished.

At the negotiations in Paris, Moscow tried to push or exchange some decisions on the Donbass for Kiev's concessions on the issue of gas transit to the EU. However, I was faced with a clear position of the Ukrainian leadership, clearly agreed in advance with EU leaders. It was noticeable that the Russian side did not expect such strong resistance to the implementation of the Kremlin?s energy policy from the EU, the USA and Ukraine. As a result of this, Russia and Gazprom were on the verge of a grand debacle.

Recently, Europe has expressed a great desire to develop bilateral energy cooperation with Russia. But at the same time, it strictly followed the policy of tightly ensuring the energy security of Europeans. The third energy package has seriously limited the capacity of Russia's infrastructure to transport gas to the EU, bypassing Ukraine. In Europe, from the very beginning, they understood the Kremlin?s desire to deprive Ukraine of gas supplies and start a war, for which measures were taken to delay the construction of the Nord Stream-2 and Turkish Stream gas pipelines.

Denmark confirmed yesterday that there was an appeal against the decision of the Danish Energy Agency to permit the construction of Nord Stream-2 in the exclusive economic zone. An appeal was made by the Polish environmental organization, which indicates that the decision poses an environmental threat to Poland and should be reviewed under the Espoo Convention. If the appeal is satisfied for environmental reasons, Russia will have to change the route of the main gas pipeline and re-lay the pipe.

The US and the EU pretended to argue on the issue of Russian gas, but in reality the Germans achieved stable supplies of cheaper American liquefied natural gas. This calls into question the entire rhetoric of the Kremlin about the economic feasibility of Nord Stream 2. The price of liquefied natural gas in the third quarter of 2019 amounted to 110-120 dollars per thousand cubic meters, while the price of Russian - 160.

A vote by the U.S. House of Representatives for the defense budget for 2020 virtually guarantees the adoption of a law on sanctions against companies involved in the construction of Russian gas pipelines. Trump has already announced that he is waiting for a law ready for signature. Sanctions will be voted and adopted by the end of 2019 and, despite its rhetoric, Russia will freeze the construction of Nord Stream-2 and Turkish Stream for five years, as indicated in the bill.

And now about the main thing. As part of NATO?s cooperation, the largest Defender Europe 2020 exercises in 25 years are planned from April to May. Preparation will take place from February to July. Given that the exercises will take place throughout Eastern Europe and the Baltic countries, there is a high probability of a complete halt of shipping and construction work in the Baltic Sea. This, at least for several months, will slow down the construction of Russia?s Nord Stream-2 and maintenance of the infrastructure of Russian gas pipelines.

Well, now, following the summit of the "Norman Four" for Russia. Firstly, there is still no trilateral gas transit contract, but there is the prospect of filing lawsuits by European consumers after January 1, 2020. Secondly, Ukraine threatens to seize Gazprom?s assets by decision of international courts. Third, Russia is losing its main gas market under pressure from US and Qatari companies. And fourthly, Gazprom faces bankruptcy, with all the political consequences for the Kremlin.

Freezing Russian energy projects will result in Moscow either signing a contract with Kiev on terms favorable to Ukraine, or endangering Gazprom, which is an indicator of political stability. Without a stable Gazprom, there is no stability in the Russian Federation.

Alexander Kucherov

https://zik.ua/ru/news/2019/12/13/rossiya_blizka_k_zamorozke_stroitelstva_severnogo_potoka_2_v_sleduyushhem_godu_949848

Fraucha:
at least someone might still buy their stupid wooden dolls, though if those are sanctioned the russian goopniks will starve.

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