It's hard to compare, because the number of fatalities for COVID-19 will depend upon the response of Government. The more draconian the measures taken, to the point of a police state, the fewer people will be killed. 60,000 people died in the 2019 flu season in the U.S. But, with no lockdown, mortality from COVID-19 could reach 2 million deaths in the U.S. A lot of this depends on quality of care. What government can do is slow down the pandemic and spread out the people who will go to the hospital, over several more months, preventing facilities from being as overwhelmed, allowing more time to obtain medical supplies, learn more about what treatment is going to be effective and practical. The minimum number of deaths theoretically possible might be 20,000 given every possible measure is taken.
What we are starting to see in America, and in Italy, is that hospitals are overwhelmed, and in America that might happen in other states, depending upon government action, including quarantine and "Social distancing" and other measures. In my state, Washington State, one of the worst affected, lockdown, closures of nonessential businesses, will happen next week as "Social distancing," asking people to stay at home is also being, um, requested.
In NYC hospitals are already almost overwhelmed.
And this is still near the beginning with the peak in those two states, not expected until sometime in May. These two states have robust public health systems and so, what will happen in poor states with big populations?
In summary, a lot of the difference, besides the higher mortality rate, will be a surge of cases inundating the hospitals.
