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Ukraine's Economy Predictions



The council is due to consider the bill on April 13.

Due to the quarantine caused by the spread of the new COVID-19 coronavirus , the economy in Ukraine will go down this year, unemployment and inflation will increase, wages will be reduced and the hryvnia will depreciate.

The Cabinet of Ministers laid down such indicators in the draft amendments to the state budget , which it submitted to the Verkhovna Rada for consideration. The people's deputies should consider this document tomorrow, April 13.

Key macroeconomic indicators included in the updated 2020 budget:
GDP - minus 3.9% (preliminary forecast - plus 3.7%).

Unemployment - 9.4% (preliminary forecast - 8.1%).

The fall in real wages is 0.3%.

The average annual dollar exchange rate is 29.5 UAH (preliminary forecast is 27 UAH).

Inflation : 2020 - 8.7%, 2021 - 5% (preliminary forecast for 2020 - plus / minus 5%).

The government predicts that economic growth will resume in the second half of this year, which will continue in the coming years. This will be due to the demand for agricultural products in the world exported by Ukraine. Among other factors are lower prices for imported energy products (oil, gas, etc.), as well as a more robust banking system than during the previous financial crises.

Recall that earlier forecasts predicted ,  that in 2020 Ukraine's economy will grow by 3.5-5%, inflation will reach 5% (plus / minus 1%), and the dollar will cost 27-28 USD. On March 29, the Cabinet approved

Emergency budget: Shmigal voiced updated macroeconomic forecast
new macroeconomic projections for 2020 : GDP - minus 4.8%, average annual USD - 29.5 UAH (plus 1.5-2 UAH), inflation - 8.7% (plus 3.1% ), unemployment - 9.4% (plus 1.3%), average salary - 11 thousand UAH (unchanged). At the same time, the Office of the President predicted that in 2020 the

Zelensky stated that the coronavirus will bring down the Ukrainian economy by at least 5%
economy of Ukraine will fall by at least 5% .

Due to the global financial crisis caused by the effects of the active spread of the new COVID-19 coronavirus, experts are predicting the decline of economies, including the Ukrainian one. Dragon Capital's updated base forecast for 2020 predicts

Consequences of coronavirus in Ukraine: what will be the dollar exchange rate, how much the economy will fall and where to look for help
a 4% drop in Ukraine's GDP and a devaluation of the hryvnia to $ 30 per dollar at the end of the year - provided that quarantine measures continue until May (the average rate is expected to be $ 29 / dollar, ie a devaluation will be about 11% year-on-year). According to a less optimistic forecast, if quarantine is extended for a longer period, GDP may fall by 9% and the hryvnia will fall to 35 UAH / dollar. Under such conditions, one can expect an increase in unemployment. The World Bank expects Ukraine's GDP to fall by 3.5% in 2020. Also due to the coronavirus pandemic65% of Ukrainian companies will not be able to fulfill their annual business plans . Більше читайте тут:


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