Author Topic: The Ukraine wobbles  (Read 13225 times)

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Offline free spirit

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Re: The Ukraine wobbles
« Reply #90 on: 15:39 30-Oct-2008 »
What information are you seeking?

If it is property in the Ukraine, PN and Azzice are the acknowledged experts and woudl surely help you in a PM or in a forum.

If you want some information, why not open a thread specifying what you are looking for and keep that thread on topic?

This thread is about the economic crisis in Ukraine. Are you interested in information on that? I think it would be a shame to have no place to discuss this, but I note that PN is really the only person who is capable of replying to my posts on the issue. Nevertheles, there may be more on this topic in the weeks and months to come.

Offline Insomniac

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Re: The Ukraine wobbles
« Reply #91 on: 15:53 30-Oct-2008 »
I guess my questions are about the everyday stuff, I'd like to get out and about more than I did last time.

Offline free spirit

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Re: The Ukraine wobbles
« Reply #92 on: 15:54 30-Oct-2008 »
Calling the bottom of a market has been compared to catching a falling knife. This applies to the stock market, but also to currency markets and financial crises of various kinds.

The Hryvnia has apparently risen today, but yesterday breached 7 to the dollar - if not in the Central Bank official rates, then at least in commercial markets.

Someone on here said he was preparing to buy property at 6.5 to the dollar. If the property seems good value, and given that one needs somewhere to live, it could make sense to buy. But you need to take a view on what is going to happen to the economy and the currency.

The IMF package will impose some conditions, and as a result next year won't be easy for the Ukraine. Some analysts seem to think property could fall in price by one-third.

I think that it is sensible to wait a little while and see what happens in Russia, which could have an effect on the Ukraine, either in the sense of "contagion", as traders blackball countries anywhere near Russia, or in the sense that Russian money may constitute some percentage of property transactions in the Ukraine.

Russia has large foreign reserves, but also large commercial debts, and it is a risky thing to be getting into to be helping large domestic companies directly from the foreign reserves. Now we read that credit cards are being rejected in Moscow. It is worth waiting and seeing what impact this has on the Ukraine.

However, all the markets are up today, and the current volatility makes it hard to read this. Have we in fact reached a bottom in the US market, and so gradually the world will work through its problems over the next two years? Maybe the IMF has been sufficiently proactive to stave off the worst? But it would be a surprise if 7 to the dollar is in fact the "bottom" for the hryvnia.

Phasar

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Re: The Ukraine wobbles
« Reply #93 on: 16:01 30-Oct-2008 »
Why would it be my intention to embarrass him? That is illogical.

As forum members have pointed out, his English is better than my Ukrainian, so, where is the embarrassment?

If you had managed to read between the lines, you would have realised my intention was to comment on the false and hypocritical praise being larded around by some forum members.

I don't like hypocrisy - and I don't think such members really do mean well. You have to understand the English mentality to see through them!

I'm not English  ;)

Sorry, couldn't resist

Nothing to see here

Carry on  ;D

Offline vumpel03

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Re: The Ukraine wobbles
« Reply #94 on: 18:01 30-Oct-2008 »
Have we in fact reached a bottom in the US market, and so gradually the world will work through its problems over the next two years? Maybe the IMF has been sufficiently proactive to stave off the worst? But it would be a surprise if 7 to the dollar is in fact the "bottom" for the hryvnia.

Probably no to your question about reaching bottom in the US market.  Most experts agree that it's probably a temp. correction and we'll continue to see significant volatility.  However, as I already said, if someone has "long" money for the next 3-5 years, now is the time to invest since there are some terrific buying opportunities on US stock market.

Offline free spirit

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Re: The Ukraine wobbles
« Reply #95 on: 18:08 30-Oct-2008 »
The problem is that it will be years before the rebound occurs - maybe better to wait and see when the "rock bottom" is reached. But I feel the IMF bailout does not cover all of the Ukraine's upcoming liabilities, so the hryvnia could easy test new lows.

Offline vumpel03

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Re: The Ukraine wobbles
« Reply #96 on: 18:22 30-Oct-2008 »
The problem is that it will be years before the rebound occurs - maybe better to wait and see when the "rock bottom" is reached. But I feel the IMF bailout does not cover all of the Ukraine's upcoming liabilities, so the hryvnia could easy test new lows.

Stock markets are forward looking (i.e. US stock market has already priced the news that 2009 will be a "bad" year for US economy).  However, since NOBODY is able to predict with a reasonable degree of certainty what should be expected in the next 1-6 months, your approach is safe.

Offline P-N

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Re: The Ukraine wobbles
« Reply #97 on: 09:01 31-Oct-2008 »

Back to the topic - in honesty, is it a bad time to relocate to Ukraine? Maybe Russia would be better?

That is a hard question to answer - I have not lived in Russia for several years now and any information I could give you would obviously be "dated" or no different from what you could read anywhere with regards to being "up to the minute".

When I was in Russia, there were certain members on this forum who were also there, mattlock, silverbullet, and packman (who I remember) and maybe more on the Russian forums. 

I have not returned to Russia since I moved here as I have had no need to.  (I also stopped participating in the Russian forums as there was little I could say of any relivance (not that there is much on here I say of relivance either  ::)) - the others may still spend enough time there to answer your question with far more accuracy then I can.

It also depends (to a degree) on what you can and cannot do and what (more importantly) you want to do when you get there.  Given the global crisis, it maybe that a little flexibility on your part would be required (at least initially), conversely it may open up opportunities for you which it would not for others.

There are 2 Russian forums like this one which are predominantly used by the expats in Russia and I would guess that they would be able to answer the situation in Russia with regards to your aspirations, far better than some of us on here (myself included). 

I am sure that whichever you chose, Ukraine or Russia, you will enjoy the "ride" for the most part. 
« Last Edit: 09:05 31-Oct-2008 by P-N »
"When surrounded by the dark void of the willfully blind, it does not excuse those that are a spark of light their duty to shine" - Me