Calling the bottom of a market has been compared to catching a falling knife. This applies to the stock market, but also to currency markets and financial crises of various kinds.
The Hryvnia has apparently risen today, but yesterday breached 7 to the dollar - if not in the Central Bank official rates, then at least in commercial markets.
Someone on here said he was preparing to buy property at 6.5 to the dollar. If the property seems good value, and given that one needs somewhere to live, it could make sense to buy. But you need to take a view on what is going to happen to the economy and the currency.
The IMF package will impose some conditions, and as a result next year won't be easy for the Ukraine. Some analysts seem to think property could fall in price by one-third.
I think that it is sensible to wait a little while and see what happens in Russia, which could have an effect on the Ukraine, either in the sense of "contagion", as traders blackball countries anywhere near Russia, or in the sense that Russian money may constitute some percentage of property transactions in the Ukraine.
Russia has large foreign reserves, but also large commercial debts, and it is a risky thing to be getting into to be helping large domestic companies directly from the foreign reserves. Now we read that credit cards are being rejected in Moscow. It is worth waiting and seeing what impact this has on the Ukraine.
However, all the markets are up today, and the current volatility makes it hard to read this. Have we in fact reached a bottom in the US market, and so gradually the world will work through its problems over the next two years? Maybe the IMF has been sufficiently proactive to stave off the worst? But it would be a surprise if 7 to the dollar is in fact the "bottom" for the hryvnia.
