Author Topic: Final U.S. Presidential Debate  (Read 2351 times)

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Offline Amerikranian

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Final U.S. Presidential Debate
« on: 05:30 16-Oct-2008 »
The last debate took place tonight and I'm wondering what everyone's take is. Of course you may not be able to see it being over in Ukraine but I've got ya covered. http://www.youdecide2008.com/2008/10/15/video-final-presidential-debate-from-hofstra-university-obama-mccain-watch-full-debate/

McCain finally got on the offensive but it's probably (and in my own opinion hopefully) too late. Obama stayed cool and ultimately I don't think he could lose this election, barring voter fraud.

Opinions?


Offline P-N

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Re: Final U.S. Presidential Debate
« Reply #1 on: 07:45 16-Oct-2008 »
I have not seen it yet, but as always will take a look.

My concern if I was in the Obama camp would be two-fold (regardless of this debate which I have not seen yet).

1.   How many voters will actually turn up and vote on the day?  The only poll that really counts is that on 4th November.  How many potential Obama voters will say, "He's so far ahead, I won't bother as my vote won't change things, he will still win"

2.   How many people have said they would vote Obama, until they are stood in the booth, pen in hand, and then consider his race at the very last minute? - particularly when the name "Hussain" is written in front of them where they must leave their mark.  For most people it will not be an issue, but for a percentage it will become one at the very last minute and the question will be how big is the percentage?

These two points could change things and put the election to within the margin for error in the polls making it tighter than it would appear to be.  There is still much to do for Obama before November 4th and of course, the world is a volatile place and could change the focus of the election once again before then too.

I hope that he will get past the finishing post first - not because of McCain but because of Palin.  Should she ever become President, she will find out there are much much bigger dogs in the kennel than a Pitbull with lipstick.



"When surrounded by the dark void of the willfully blind, it does not excuse those that are a spark of light their duty to shine" - Me

Offline P-N

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Re: Final U.S. Presidential Debate
« Reply #2 on: 09:32 16-Oct-2008 »
Now I have watched it, it was easily the best of the 3, although I would say there was no winner, at least it came close to an intelligent debate on policy.  :)
"When surrounded by the dark void of the willfully blind, it does not excuse those that are a spark of light their duty to shine" - Me

Offline mattsh

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Re: Final U.S. Presidential Debate
« Reply #3 on: 13:21 16-Oct-2008 »

1.   How many voters will actually turn up and vote on the day?  The only poll that really counts is that on 4th November.  How many potential Obama voters will say, "He's so far ahead, I won't bother as my vote won't change things, he will still win"

2.   How many people have said they would vote Obama, until they are stood in the booth, pen in hand, and then consider his race at the very last minute? - particularly when the name "Hussain" is written in front of them where they must leave their mark.  For most people it will not be an issue, but for a percentage it will become one at the very last minute and the question will be how big is the percentage?


My take, for what it's worth...

#1 is always a concern.  But my feeling for the last few years is that Americans would have to start to feel some pain before America could possibly get back on track.  They're starting to feel that pain now, so that "should" be a positive motivator. 

#2 is not an issue, at least from where I am.  My absentee ballot lists him as "Barack Obama".  No middle name. 

But the issue I'm most worried about, the elephant in the room that no one wants to acknowledge...

#3 Voting fraud.  Many votes are counted by electronic voting machines, whose corporate presidents are FOB, Friends of Bush.  There have been so many accounts of fraudulent voting machines that the only reason nobody makes an issue of it is that people would totally lose faith in the system (much like people can't be told about the financial system, or they would run the bank).  I have seen a video of a hack in action (can't find it now). 

http://www.blackboxvoting.org/
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"Reality will continue to happen, even to those who refuse to recognize it's legitimacy." - Me

Offline P-N

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Re: Final U.S. Presidential Debate
« Reply #4 on: 13:25 16-Oct-2008 »
I have just read that Colin Powell is soon to publically back Obama - that I feel, will seal it.   :)
"When surrounded by the dark void of the willfully blind, it does not excuse those that are a spark of light their duty to shine" - Me

Offline Amerikranian

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Re: Final U.S. Presidential Debate
« Reply #5 on: 14:12 16-Oct-2008 »
P-N, I think you hit the issue on the head with #1. Although in the past the youth/minority voters haven't turned out in great numbers, this year definitely has a chance. The ground-game that Obama has going on is massive. Just in my zip-code alone there are some 20+ events going on this week and I can't go more than 3 blocks downtown without finding someone working on voter registration. The people I talk to are also pretty amped that this time they have a legitimate chance of winning this election. It seems as if the disenfranchisement with our political system may have taken a back seat in his election.

Offline Billy T

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Re: Final U.S. Presidential Debate
« Reply #6 on: 10:53 17-Oct-2008 »
Hi all, just got back from 3 weeks in the states yesterday....

At this point I think a video of Obama punching a baby would have to surface to derail an O victory....

Even Karl Rove has Obama way out in front on electoral polling...
http://www.rove.com/election..Of course the only poll that matters is Nov 4th, but the sense I got from being in the states is one of great enthusiasm among young people...And let's not forget that the youth vote mobilized huge for Clinton in 92, and it looks as if it will surge even harder for Obama...Not to mention unaffiliated/slightly conservative voters like my father and his wife who are so fed up with the repubs they yell at McCain when he's on the TV....

IMHO McCain still has an advantage that can not be ignored, in that his base of older folks and religious fundamentalists traditionaly show a lot more reliability come election day than do Obama's young and minority voters...But the Obama campaign looks to me like a campaign that is well aware of this, and is really doing their part in various "get out the vote" programs...

And the fact that Obama's campaign is now opening operations in West Virginia, North Dakota and Kentucky bodes postively for him, as just a month or so ago, these were considered locks for the GOP, but seem to be coming into play as possible states to flip....interesting election...

Truly, it's anybodies game right now, of course, but I'm still on that baby punching thing as just about the only way Obama can lose it....In all the debates McCain looked rattled and irritated and Obama seemed to get more confident and relaxed as they went on, and though it should matter less than it does, that whole looking calm, cool and collected stuff plays well with the voters

"The story of the gay sheep showed what can result when science meets global news"--The International Herald Tribune, January 26th, 2007.

Offline Billy T

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Re: Final U.S. Presidential Debate
« Reply #7 on: 11:17 17-Oct-2008 »
Oh and if anyone in Kyiv hasn't seen the 3rd debate but would like to, the following info may come in handy

Third Presidential Debate: Saturday October 18, 1PM
Location: Golden Gate Pub, Zolotovorotska 15, near the Zoloti Vorota metro stop
"The story of the gay sheep showed what can result when science meets global news"--The International Herald Tribune, January 26th, 2007.

Offline Vera

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Re: Final U.S. Presidential Debate
« Reply #8 on: 13:01 17-Oct-2008 »
Political Dashboard (State by state data)

http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard
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Offline P-N

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Re: Final U.S. Presidential Debate
« Reply #9 on: 17:29 17-Oct-2008 »
Although I think Obama will have enough to get over the line, I am getting "one of those feelings" that this election in the US will have internal effects long after 4th November and not necessarily for the right reasons.

I do not mean simply towards policy and direction, but I (purely as an observer) see this election having become far more polarising than any other I can remember in the USA.  Obama does not have "socialist policies" as we, in the Uk for example, would see them - ie. he is not advocating a free national health service for all at the point of delivery as we have, (and it is one of the best socialist policies we have ever brought in during the post WWII period IMHO), he is still right of centre on this issue as he is on many issues by our standards.

The problems which keep recurring to my mind are thus:

I can foresee many results being referred to investigation due to alledged voter fraud, like Florida last time, but this time on a much larger scale, maybe even 4 or 5 states.  This will probably polarise the electorate even futher which in some cases seems to have reached and surpassed hatred of the opposition.

Add to this the racisim which does exist in numerous regions within the US (discounting large numbers of individuals), should they be on the losing side of any disputed "fraudulent" vote counts, this could turn these individuals and small groups even further to fanatisism.

Should Obama win in such a manner, I consider it very possible that a "Dallas 1pm" scenario would become much more likely.

If that were successful, not only would there be the immediate catastrophic impact, but the later response of "the state" on surpressing and investigating such "radical individuals and groups" may polarise the population even more so with extreme and long lasting results.

I hope I am wrong and thus the best way for Obama to win is by a landslide victory negating any form of further polarisation which already exists.

Maybe those from the "other side of the pond" can dispell this thought as they are much more in touch with their population than I.

(An uncomfortable post for everyone I appreciate).
« Last Edit: 18:07 17-Oct-2008 by P-N »
"When surrounded by the dark void of the willfully blind, it does not excuse those that are a spark of light their duty to shine" - Me